Internal polls within the Romney campaign have made the former governor confident of victory. The Romney polls, completed by Neil Newhouse, finds Romney one point ahead in the pivotal Ohio race. Significantly, it shows him tied with the president in Pennsylvania - a state that would put Romney in an incredible position to win the presidency. He is up big in New Hampshire, up two points in Iowa, and tied in Wisconsin, according to the poll. Nevada is out of the question and sure to go to Obama. These internal numbers almost certainly mean Romney will win; opponents can only question the accuracy of the numbers.
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The Romney campaign is already declaring victory in several Obama states from the last election: Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia. But this is old news. The biggest change in their own data is Wisconsin, which has gone from eight points down to dead even. Wisconsin is big because it would give Romney a great chance even if he lost Ohio, which most people see as necessary to win. Obama knows how important Wisconsin is - that is why he is campaigning there in the final hours.
Romney apparently views Pennsylvania and Ohio as the two most important battleground states here on Election Day as these are the states he is visiting today. Pennsylvania has gone to the Democrats for the last 6 elections, yet Romney is visiting Pittsburgh today due to his favorable polling numbers. And this is a big prize: 20 Electoral Votes and a smooth ride to the White House. The Obama campaign only hope is to question the Romney polls and dismiss Romney's visit to the state as a "desperate" attempt to win. But with Bill Clinton holding not one but four events in Pennsylvania today, which campaign appears desperate to win the state?
Image Source: Richard Whitney




Comments: 26
All election polls have a margin of error of +/- 3 to 5 points. The other thing to consider is the methodology of the "internal" polls. Sometimes they're less accurate than what the national polling organizations come up with. Internal polls may be designed to yield optimistic results.