New jobless claims declined by 6,000 the last week of July versus predictions of an increase of 3,000. This suggests that business owners are willing to keep people because they have confidence the American economy is improving. In support of that notion, the decline continues a nine-month trend of improving labor market data. Concurrently, the international trade deficit narrowed.
Despite the best efforts of Republicans in Congress to ensure a collapsing economy and the highest possible unemployment rate as the election approaches, the economy continues to improve, as it has done steadily for the past nine months. In fact, the second quarter's growth rate, pegged initially at 1.5%, will be revised upward to 1.8% in the next few days.
As new claims for jobless benefits declined by 6,000 the last week in July, 9,000 below the predicted number, the number of newly created non-farm jobs continued to increase, by about 163,500 for July, albeit still at a rate below that needed to cover all new workers coming into the workforce. The America economy needs approximately 250,000 new jobs per month for that. These statistics taken together resulted in a one-tenth point increase in the unemployment rate.
The four-week moving average for July showed an increase for the total month in new unemployment insurance claims of about 2,500. However, July is a difficult month to assess statistically, because it is the month in which the auto companies close production plants for retooling. Suppliers and vendors, perforce do the same thing, or at least are subjected to significant temporary reductions in their workforce.
As the jobs picture continued to include, the US Trade Deficit 10.6% to $42.9 billion Economists had predicted a deficit of $47.5 billion. The deficit represents an outflow of US dollars, and any reduction in the outflow is an economic improvement in and of itself.
"Gloom-sayers" looking for negatives to assign to the President, insist that there is no improvement in the US economy. Taken together, the long-term run of new unemployment claims and unemployment rates trending down, new jobs trending up and an improvement in the US trade deficit show that they are wrong. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics graphs salient employment data.
Despite all attempts to derail it, the American economy is clearly on the way back. The State of Michigan, for instance, has announced plans to add to its new jobless claims. The State announced plans a few days ago to lay off three-quarters of its unemployment insurance staff over the next two months for lack of work.
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Comments: 33
And do NOT give me that idiotic whine about the price of gas in mid-November 2008. I swear I'll delete you every time you show up if you do.
They know that if The One gets reelected, gas will be even higher!
Do you have any idea why the price of gas went up in Minnesota the last few days? (It was on the news but you may have missed it.)
But the Proles will blame it on the President.
How Republican.
It's Winnie's name of respect for the common-man voters of America. For the rest of us, it's a sneer.
You might want to look at the U-6 rate, the labor participation rate, the number of new businesses that have started up vs. the number of ones that have failed, the national debt, the debts of the states, the debts of our cities, the estimates for unfunded obligations, the average length of unemployment, the security rating assigned by Moody's, the annual deficits, .... If you can look at those figures and see a strong or even moderate recovery on the way, I have to admire your optimism.
All one needs to do is to look at the Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) to see that the reported unemployment numbers are a farce!
"The Real Unemployment Rate Is Nearly 15%"
"The reported unemployment rate is 8.2%. This is the percentage of people who are out of work but are still pounding the pavement looking for a job.
That is different from the more important number, called the Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR). This number represents all of the people in the entire workforce who could look for work if they tried. When people give up looking for work, they exit the workforce."
For instance, back in early 2009, the unemployment rate was about 10% (a little more if I remember correctly), and now it's 8.3. It's been dropping since then. THAT's the 1 : 1 comparison I'm looking for.
Except that it's NOT a 1 to 1 comparison Chuck.
"NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- The unemployment rate could fall in coming months, but don't get too excited.
It won't necessarily be a sign the job market is improving.
More than a half million long-term unemployed people are losing their federal extended unemployment benefits. And when the checks stop coming, one of two things are likely to occur: They'll take any job they can get to stay afloat financially or they'll drop out of the labor force completely.
Either way, they won't be counted as unemployed anymore."
The unemployment rate is NOT how many people who are unemployed in our country, it is the number of people in our country who are receiving unemployment benefits.
Sheesh!
May I add that the 6,000 figure includes the many people who entered in professional life after graduations? This makes the figure even more significant.
Indeed, the economy is slightly improving but still shows political uncertainties of the future due to the lack of lawmakers cooperation.
One of the not mentioned many "good" points is that deflation seems to have stopped. As you mentioned, the increasing external debt is slowing down.
I bet the GDP raise will exceed 2% by the end of this year.