Ron Paul is supposed to be unelectable, the vintage media has repeated that line early and often. Another tactic popular with Paul detractors is to dismiss any recent poll as an isolated picture of the race. The trouble is, Paul's isolated successes keep coming in polls from different sources and with different methods. At some point, a group of "isolated" events becomes a pattern.
Gallup places Paul in a dead heat with Obama.
The latest poll in the growing trend of success for Paul is a Gallup Poll that shows Paul in a statistical tie with Obama. Among registered voters, Obama drew 47 percent support to Paul's 45 percent. Among all adults, Obama holds a 45 percent to 44 percent lead. The margin of error in the poll is four percentage points, meaning that the candidates are essentially even in the poll.
Other interesting aspects of the poll include:
- Ron Paul leads Obama 46 percent to 43 percent among independents.
- Obama is polling at 40 percent approval in the August before the election, less than the previous six incumbents who were re-elected since Eisenhower.
- Democrats and Republicans are showing strong party allegiance for their candidate.
What does it all mean?
It doesn't mean much this early in the election cycle. Many things can change as the election approaches. But Paul's position among independents bodes well for his campaign since independents will decide the outcome of this election according to many analysts. Obama's approval rating could skyrocket with an economic recovery, and few people in either party at this point would complain about politics should that happen.
But the polls do show trends, and one trend is consistent. Ron Paul is a factor in this race. If his message continues to spread among independents and rational Republicans, he could become an even bigger player in the race. Those who parrot the vintage media ideas about "isolated results" and unelectability refuse to acknowledge facts. That's their right, but it doesn't change the facts.
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