Arizona Senator Jon Kyl is not running for reelection in 2012. People speculated about Sarah Palin becoming its next senator. Palin said it was not her plan. Now the democrats believe the vacant senate seat can be a win for them.
Democrats in Washington see an opportunity ripe for the picking as Jon Kyl retires after three terms. However, Arizona is a red state and even without an incumbent running against the candidate, it will be a hard campaign for any Democrat.
The Republicans already have a strong front-runner, Congressman Jeff Flake. A candidate for the Democrats has yet to emerge. The public favorite would be Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords. She is still in rehab and her political future is uncertain.
If Giffords is unable to run, the Democrats do not have an alternative candidate coming forward. The Tucson shooting has left a large hole in Arizona's small democrat base. Giffords is one of only a few democrats well liked in a largely republican state.
Can the Democrats win a senate seat in a predominantly red state? A run for an open seat would be easier; however, the Democrats need a strong well-liked opponent for Jeff Flake. As Gabrielle Giffords future in politics is unclear, no other Democrat is rising to the challenge to win over voters.
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Comments: 24
What is the latest she could decide for the Senate race?
The recent photos of Gabrielle made startlingly clear that whatever the bullet took from her, it was decidedly not her basic - and all important - ability to connect naturally with other people.
If she can work her speech abilities up to a certain mimimum level (and there are no other 'prohibitive' factors that we don't know about yet) ... I am now reversing my earlier position to say that perhaps it is not an unachievable goal that Giffords returns to public service, even as soon as next year.
It is unusual, and extremely fortunate, the Gabby has retained the principle visible elements of her personality. There are lots of other huge elements of recovery (speaking appears to be a major issue for her), but she seems to have been spared the usual 'deal breaker' sorts of debilitation & disability.
It's still a long-shot, but I'm no longer writing it off. And if she does get to the point where she can run ... oh_my_god.
If Giffords' constituents were unhappy, raising a ruckus in D.C., that might be one thing. If Congress was bummed out about the situation, that would be one thing. If it was a raging brain cancer with nowhere to go but downhill ... well, Teddy Kennedy still held his seat literally to the End.
I'm not a big cheerleader/fan of severe brain trauma recovery/rehab. I know too much about it: the odds are bad.
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The best analogy is the jigsaw puzzle. Put all the pieces in a box, then take a handful and throw them away. Lay another handful out on newsprint and spray-paint them black. Paint others white. Fold, spindle & mutilate an number of pieces.
Now put the puzzle back together. In plenty of cases, the resulting picture is virtually unrecognizable. It depends on the luck of the draw. What is missing? What is wrong? What fits & what doesn't?
When the missing & messed up pieces are metaphorically from areas of grass, water, sky, etc, and the crucial elements of the image are still intact ... then Johnny goes home from rehab, recognizes his mom, still loves & marries his girlfriend, and everyone is eternally grateful.
Note that Johnny still lost big & important parts of himself. It's just that the parts that made him "Johnny" to those around him, escaped destruction.
"Sky" and "water" areas are very important in the brain ... but they can be very independent of the persona. Those who come through Traumatic Brain Injury with this outcome are very fortunate ... and unusual/rare, to match.
Because of the national 'backstory' with Giffords, if it turns out that she came through like Johnny, this could be a very big deal.
In recovery/rehab, it's a race. A scramble. A balancing of too many priorities. You have to push; but you have to go easy. There isn't enough time; yet time drags too slowly.
No doubt, Giffords will get the finest of the finest. If any 'lucky' TBI survivor is going to return to Congress, it will be her.
I don't think there will be any focus on her job at this point, other than in gentle ways that are thought to contribute to her recovery program. Realistically, it's been totally recovery, up to now.
Next, she goes home. This will be a highly managed "phase". There are many specific therapies, goals, prospects to pursue. She is absolutely not "just going home".
Following the home-phase, higher level challenges will be considered. It always has to be played by ear. Her job will come into serious consideration during this phase.
If by the Holidays she has continued strong progress and is clearly continuing to expand her abilities, then we might be arriving at a point from which predictions can begin.
Strong recovery for 2 years is common. She will have been only 1.5 years, when she must jump into a race. 3 or 4 years of gains are not unusual.
If she is able to do this, then it should be anticipated that she will become a political "sensation". Akin to, conceivably eclipsing, Palin.
But this gal is comparing body-wounds to head-wounds.
'Recovery is work, it hurts, but she'll get there'.
Well, no - it doesn't work like that, with head wounds.
Brain-injuries keep lots of 'good men' down.
Debbie is Cheerleader-In-Chief for the idea that Gabrielle can return to Congress.
When Pia Carusone, Giffords' Chief of Staff, and heavily involved in her recovery program, 'tamped down' expectations last week, she was likely speaking to Debbie's 'excesses'.
Yet Debbie's response was to even more aggressive assert her 'she can run' refrain.
This is exasperating to the medical folks, and those actually 'working' the recovery program. They slave away in the trenches for gentle movement forward, then some Important Dame jets in and immediately proclaims herself more of an authority than them.
But it shows how badly the Democrats want Giffords to run: they are clearly willing to 'jack the doctors up against the wall', imply to the public that, 'Oh man yeah - Gabby is gonna be back!'. Not very nice - but that's politics.
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Furthermore, showing how badly the DNC wants a DEM on the ticket - Giffords is no ordinary DEM. For one thing, she is a gun-owner and Second Amendment support. Given that, she could well hold other Conservative values, too.
There could even be pressure applied to Giffords, to get her to come out agains firearms.
The problem for anti-gun folks is, of course, that the problems with firearms are not really connected to banana clips, or 'assault rifles'.
This is seen in the fact that of the annual toll of firearms deaths, half or more are suicide. Gang activity and other 'voluntary participation' blood sports account for a large chunk of the other half.
High-capacity magazines and high-powered, long-range assault rifles just are not the boogeyman that gun-opponents want to paint them.
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We see Gabrielle Giffords' mother beside her in the recent photos. Her family most-strongly guides Gabrielle's values. Her Chief of Staff comes across as very much a 'no-nonsense' figure ... and rather pointedly "bucking" Wasserman-Schultz.
Democrats might want to reflect on the possible downsides, in pushing so dramatically for Giffords to run ... lest they reaffirm the old saw; "Be careful what you wish for"!
Guess we'll see...
I dunno'...